Ah, this is great news. Hopefully they can actually come up with something that Hungary and other reich-wing shitholes can't scuttle.
The best possible world would have Hungary ejected from the Union so that they could reapply for membership if they manage to unfuck themselves, but unfortunately I don't think there's any sort of a mechanism for anything like that (or much chance of Hungary getting unfucked, by all appearances)
If the West keeps escalating, at some point Russia has to respond to not loose credibility. The fact that western politicians are convinced they are morally right seems to blind them to this. Russia is capable of doing real damage and has thus far threatened but also shown restraint, clearly they do not want to escalate this beyond Ukraine. Nobody, not the West, not Ukraine, and not Russia, has an interest in WW3 but every day we seem to blindly walk closer and closer. Making it all the more astonishing that not more mainstream voices confront the harsh realpolitik of the current situation.
Making emotional appeals on how evil the enemy is, is not a great way to deescalate a situation. And if you want to keep more hospitals standing, peace is your best hope. We can not control what Russia does, nor can you defeat a nuclear power, we can only negotiate and hope to get back to a point where both Russia and Europe had their security concerns met and there was no war in Ukraine.
But they are not gonna leave, and we can’t make them without risking worse (for Ukraine and the world at large).
And of course we can’t force Ukraine to stop resisting (nor should we, it is their right), but I have the impression the west does not want this to end (regardless of the cost of Ukrainian lives), and sees this as an opportunity to weaken Russia.
Making emotional appeals on how evil the enemy is, is not a great way to deescalate a situation.
Are you joking? This invasion is a textbook example of the crime of aggression, the second worst thing you can do in international law. And there are credible indications we’re dealing with the worst one too.
The world of geopolitics is a world without police, so I agree that the invasion is a war crime, but in practice there is not much we can do that doesn’t make the situation worse.
In my opinion the best we can hope for is peace by means of a balance of power.
The lack of credible enforcement of international law is made very clear by the Iraq war, a war of aggression where the perpetrators were never held to account because the US was powerful enough to prevent that.
I don’t think it’s morally bad to be pragmatic in that sense, if trying to punish Russia leads to nuclear annihilation.
I don’t think it’s morally bad to be pragmatic in that sense, if trying to punish Russia leads to nuclear annihilation.
No it doesn’t. They have had plenty of time to push the button. They threatened and threatened and threatened. But they didn’t and they are not going to. The right move now is to squeeze them as much as we can, slice the salami nice and thin with a series of small escalations that by themselves don’t justify a nuclear response, but together meaningfully change the trajectory of the conflict.
And apparently Estonia understands this because it’s exactly what they are doing. Now we all need to get with the program.
If the West keeps escalating, at some point Russia has to respond to not loose credibility.
Russia already lost all its credibility, after they sign the Bubapest memorandum, they breach it and annexed Crimea. Then tried to annex the rest of Ukraine (or to put one of its puppet) some years later. At this point everything Russia sign has less value than the paper used to write it.
You are right, nobody want WW3 but it is not that because of this then Putin (or everyone else for that matter) could do whatever he want.
I’m not saying Ukraine doesn’t have the right to defend itself, but the west is not Ukraine and has a broader responsibility (and seems currently mostly concerned with destabilizing Russia regardless of the cost of Ukrainian lives).
Russia made clear that it had the intent and means to stop Ukraine from joining NATO, and yet the US kept promising. This was dangerous and escalatory, the West knew this (this is also the reason why France and Germany were originally against it when the US proposed this) and yet they kept promising. Even after Russia annexed Crimea and started fighting Ukraine in the east the US kept promising NATO, de facto forcing Russia to keep fighting. Even when Russia made it 100% explicit and clear, they would not take NATO of the table.
This war was preventable, and further conflict is still preventable. But the US has shown that apparently Ukrainian lives are not worth a lot compared to their geo-strategic plans.
And of course Russia doesn’t and didn’t have the right to invade Ukraine, but if the US are truly ‘the good guys’ then it’s time to act that way and find a peaceful solution (given the situation at hand).
And finally, while it’s up to Ukrainians to decide in what kind of country they want to live, I can imagine they would rather live in a neutral country than a destroyed one.
and seems currently mostly concerned with destabilizing Russia regardless of the cost of Ukrainian lives
More like the opposite. Noone but the Chinese would benefit from Russia breaking up, at least an uncontrolled breakup, that is. Even Ukraine would be in a shitty position because regional instability and ass-long border.
The discussions about sending military instructors or contractors to Ukraine to train troops and assist with equipment repairs have raised concerns among NATO allies about being drawn into a conflict with Russia
Isn't NATO already in a de facto conflict with Russia? Almost all countries in the alliance have placed sanctions on it and are openly hostile towards Putin's regime except maybe Turkey. Also, Russia has been unable to push forward the front line in the past year or so, is NATO really worried that they have the capability to open another front line?
Russia would not survive that, and Putin knows that. Germany, France and the US maybe would, like Japan did, at least if we don't wipe out the whole biosphere, but Russia wouldn't.
Why do you say that? They have a much larger land mass and more spread out population, which seems to argue that they are in a more survivable position.
There's no Russia without Moscow and St. Petersburg. Sure, there's still Russian-speaking people, but no state. No elite, no central power, and as all power is central in Russia that means none at all. It'd be a free-for-all.
Even if just Putin disappeared there'd be a power vacuum. If every Russian city and many, many towns were permanently destroyed, which is what would happen, Russia would only exist in the history books.
That's an empty threat. Maybe it wasn't empty when there was some ideology backing the threat like in the 60s, but there's no way that the Russian oligarchy would accept such an outcome given the luxury they hope to live in.
There isn't much evidence that the oligarchs have any influence.
As someone who lived through it, Mutual Assured Destruction was an insane policy in the 60s, 70s, and 80s. It may have been the only one available, but it was insane. It's no better now.
As somebody else who lived through part of it, closer to the side that was on the "losing side of history", I think that it's much more difficult to get someone to push the required buttons without the state indoctrination apparatus as it was in USSR. Everybody hesitated back then, I think it's highly unlikely they won't now.
Sure it's a setback for the Uyghurs, but it can help end russias attack on Ukraine. I think it's good Macron is trying. Doesn't mean they will become besties.
France's parliament on Thursday denounced a "genocide" by China against its Uyghur Muslim population [...] The non-binding resolution, adopted with 169 votes in favour and just one against [...] reads that the National Assembly "officially recognises the violence perpetrated by the People's Republic of China against the Uyghurs as constituting crimes against humanity and genocide".
It also calls on the French government to undertake "the necessary measures within the international community and in its foreign policy towards the People's Republic of China" to protect the minority group in the Xinjiang region.
westobserver.com
Heiß