The candidate is formally proposed by the Council but the Parliament still has to elect them which means the Parliament has the upper hand in any power play. Which worked out in 2014, Junker was the EPP's candidate and they won a relative majority, it didn't work in 2019 because Weber couldn't convince the rest of the parliament. It's possible that the EPP has learned from that experience but their candidate for 2024 is vdL anyway, it'd be highly unusual in European politics for a party to axe a candidate that wants a second term, at least without good reason.
There's certainly still plenty of will in the Parliament to side-line the Council. One thing's for sure should a party either have an absolute majority or be able to form a big/small party coalition (say, PES/EGP isn't unlikely) they're going to force the bigger party's candidate through. But with the electorate voting as it does it's the usual EPP/PES grand non-coalition so the Council will find ways to push their preferred candidate should there only be a modicum of disunity among that non-coalition.