Election: Poll results for small parties? Englisch

In this election there won't be any % barrier in some countries, but I still haven't seen any poll numbers for small parties here in Germany for example. Everything below 2-3% gets lumped in with "Others" as usual, even though about 0.5% would already get them a seat in parliament this time. This makes voting strategically very difficult, because we have no idea whether any small party could even get in.

I get that there are limits to what you can show in a graphic, but even the source links I checked didn't provide more details. Why is that, and has anyone seen poll numbers for small parties, particularly for Germany?

Gieselbrecht ,

The problem is that small vote shares in a survey are not reliably measured when you consider measurement uncertainty. It makes sense to not include very low shares to avoid an unwarranted impression of accuracy.

5ymm3trY ,

That's the right answer. I couldn't find a poll that explicitly states it on my quick search, but if I am not mistaken I saw a poll in TV lately that showed an uncertainty of about 2-3%. It just makes no sense to list parties that are below that value.

EarMaster , (Bearbeitet )

You are correct. Most of these polls only have 1000 to 2000 participants.

nudnyekscentryk ,
@nudnyekscentryk@szmer.info avatar

0.5% gets you seats in German system?

PonyOfWar ,

Yes, but this is the final European election without a threshold in Germany.

vzq , (Bearbeitet )

No, you need a bit more than a percent to get a seat, given proportional representation:

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/infographic/meps-seats/index_en.html

I’m not sure how the apportionment of remaining seats is performed in Germany and whether it’s a EU standard or up to the states, but in NL you need at least one full seat to be eligible for additional ones based on fractional seats.

https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/verkiezingen/vraag-en-antwoord/hoe-werkt-de-zetelverdeling-na-de-verkiezingen

I couldn’t find an equivalent German page.

PonyOfWar ,

In Germany, you can get a seat with less than 1%. In the last election, ÖDP got one with 0.6%. Not an expert on the electoral system, but I'd guess it's because Germany has more seats in the first place.

CyberEgg ,

No, it's because there is no electoral threshold for EU elections in Germany. Every party with enough votes for a seat gets that seat (which is projected to be around 0.5% but depends on the total number of voters). Unfortunately, this is the last election without a threshold in Germany

PonyOfWar ,

Some of the polls on wahlrecht.de include the smaller parties. The latest one that does is from march though, unfortunately.

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